Looking back, Looking ahead, I see real estate trends, 2008 - Chen Shun's blog - the focus of blog

 Turn of the year, is to review and sum up the moment, it is the beginning of vision and hope. Will come in 2008, much attention, then the 2008 Beijing property market are going to be what state? There are differing views on this I think the future will be in Beijing in 2008: the market more and more standardized, or more limited, more and more to enhance the quality of the people more satisfied! Review article Beijing is very cold in winter, although the year 2007 No six countries, eight countries that the new policy, but the financial aspects associated with the new policy has to be stronger, to raise interest rates several times in one year, revealed the central bank reserve ratio to reach historic highs. the beginning, the central bank did not release cap, not allowed to put mortgage loans, on September 27 issued a second set of housing policy, loans for the same period as interest rates go up 10%, the first payment shall not be less than 40%; 18 December the central bank stopped the transfer of mortgage and processing mortgage loans. All this shows the state has carried out several rounds of macro-control, the banks continue to strengthen efforts to rectify, the Government continues to use the economic levers to regulate the financial market as a whole. I remember a real estate a third that house prices rose too quickly this year because so many people can not afford too expensive because of high prices, has reached the point where real estate has nothing to do with their own. Vanke's price, Wang's come to understand Beijing's cold, and good in Beijing, Wang recently attended a news conference to make a can not be generalized. contradictions house owners increase the quality of lead, matching can not deliver, you have escaped and fled and so on. These problems greatly affect its own image, all the negative issues are reflected in a fundamental credibility problem, which is a non- neglected with systemic problems. Looking papers in 2008 will be like? State Council on August 7 Kusakabe document issued by 24 countries to establish clear mechanisms for housing security, all of which further established the support of owner-occupied , inhibiting investment and curb speculation and increase the supply for the consumer, to curb investment demand, in fact, is to determine the increase effective supply, inhibition of the basic principles of demand for profit. We can do basic analysis of several aspects of real estate in 2008: Policy will play a decisive role, fundamentally speaking, is between market forces and government forces in the game, to see the final game results. with reference to Taiwan, Hong Kong, both the property and the history of several government actions control the property market, from the effects of point of view, as long as the government hand housing prices, not unsuccessful. While some doubt the policy effect, but the hand of the government's power is unquestionable. just near the new credit policy issued for the rapid growth of housing prices play a crucial role in the last quarter of 2007, the new credit policy by the emergence of the real estate slow growth. So, beginning in 2008 with full implementation of property law, and the new financial, land, taxation, credit, planning and implementation of the policy, etc., will 2008 real estate trends play a role in decision-making. The market will be more rational consumption of affordable housing on the market today serious ; the situation. Therefore, no longer marks the beginning of follow-up, turned to hold out. taking into account the possibility of rising interest rates, demand may be further reduced next year, do not buy or buy up housing prices may no longer exist, will ultimately return to the majority of the residents and local income, the level corresponding to the level of property. Villa consumption will be the Last Supper by the new round of land policy, the policy of 70/90, villas products will disappear from the market, according to market supply and demand theory villa prices will continued to rise, the villa will become increasingly scarce, there is a certain economic strength of the customers will enjoy the villa consumption of the Last Supper; the same time, the government guarantee of the product will be greatly increased, the product will change a lot of fundamental structural changes . regional division of the more traditional hot residential area of fuzzy basically saturated or near saturation have been developed, the previous non-hot residential area will be the focus of attention of the people in general, previous Xishan section, toward the green plates, etc. will gradually withdraw from the supply of real estate market, will be replaced in the southwest section, the eastern section and so on, market segmentation will become more blurred, the plates will gradually expand the scope of a project led a context line, then will lead a regional, but the combination of surface and the surface will also make the market more more mature relationship between points and lines will certainly surface in the main stream of the real estate market. pay more attention to enhance the quality of project operations will be more emphasis on real estate developers to create a humane environment, and enhance product quality, the future of residential will be meet the owners live in the same time, more and more focused on meeting the psychological needs of the owners, it is inevitable, while promoting energy conservation and environmental protection products will be favored by society .2008, the state will be around this kind of problem real estate there will be new policy, we must always move forward, that is , there appears to be the case, Price, recently to see the view - the 2008 Academy of Social Sciences recently released .2008 vital interests of the masses, a series of control measures will continue to implement the real estate market, tight supply situation will ease to some extent, but the inevitable trend of rising housing prices. Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of Quantitative and Technical Economic Researcher Li Jinhua that support sustained and rapid economic growth in the real estate market is the most basic, the most important factor; urbanization drive housing demand, these factors make real estate prices will not significantly decrease. I am in favor of the Academy of Social Sciences point of view. Of course, if prices jumped the powerful, but not the effect of regulation, the tax may be used to adjust the economic levers (such as: the big house to pay higher taxes, etc.). no matter how theory, how to say, as we always have to to improve their own thing, this is the most fundamental aspect, for me, on their own are worth paying .2008 is China's Olympic year, in general, the real estate market will enter a normal growth track , healthy development, consumers are more rational consumption; in the body of the Olympic Garden, the staff and owners will actively promote the Green Olympics, Scientific Olympics and Humanity Olympics and the Olympic spirit.